CQ Roll Call Daily Briefing: They're Taking a Fork in the Road
Friday, June 22, 2012
Today In Washington
THE WHITE HOUSE: Obama is on the way to Orlando, where he’ll trumpet his new no-deportation-of-young-and-upstanding-illegal-immigrants policy — and press his jobs agenda — in a 1:40 speech to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. (A poll out today from Latino Decisions, and partially conducted after Obama’s announcement a week ago, found him ahead of Romney 63 percent to 27 percent among registered Hispanics in five swing states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia. In the biggest of those, Florida, the gap has grown from 10 points in a similar poll in January to 16 points now.)
The open question is whether the president will revive the unfulfilled campaign promise from his last NALEO speech, four years ago; he said then that a comprehensive immigration overhaul, including a path to citizenship for most of the 11 million people in the country illegally, “is a priority I will pursue from my very first day” as president. Whether he does or not, though, the Latino politicians are sure to welcome him more warmly than they did Romney yesterday — despite his slightly softer-than-usual tone on immigration: He still didn’t say what he’d do if he inherited the new Dream-Act-like policy (he’s previously vowed to veto such legislation) but said he’d give green cards to immigrants who earn advanced degrees here and also to illegals who join the military.)
Air Force One will take the president across the state for a 4:15 campaign rally speech at Hillsborough Community College in Tampa. He’s due back on the South Lawn just after sundown, which is at 8:37.
THE CHALLENGER: Romney is headed to the Chateaux at Silver Lake resort in Park City, Utah, for a weekend retreat with his top donors ($50,000 for singles, $150,000 for couples). No fewer than six potential running mates will put in appearances — Rob Portman, John Thune, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Bob McDonnell and Tim Pawlenty — and so will a pair of prominent Republicans who say they’ve taken themselves out of the veepstakes, Jeb Bush and Condoleezza Rice.
THE SENATE: Not in session; next convenes at 2 on Monday, with a vote at 5:30 to push the FDA overhaul toward the president’s desk.
THE HOUSE: Not in session; next convenes (for a pro forma only) at 2 on Monday, with the next votes after 6:30 on Tuesday on a handful of non-controversial measures.
GEAR SHIFT: Negotiators are even more confident than they were yesterday that a highway bill deal can be reached in time to clear the measure before next Saturday’s deadline.
And it looks increasingly as though their formula for unlikely success will be splitting their work into a two-part package. That means separating the core public works policy and funding provisions, which look to enjoy decent bipartisan majorities in on both sides of the Capitol, from the policy riders that Republicans have dreamed of adding to the bill all along.
The best-known would speed construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, curb EPA regulation of coal ash and steer BP’s oil spill federal penalty payments to the Gulf Coast states. Most Democrats, and even some Republicans, oppose those ideas — either as bad policy or as “poison pills” to a bill they’d otherwise like. Putting those riders before lawmakers on their own would guarantee enactment of the core bill. The fate of such a package would be too close to call at the moment — in part because the language is being left for Reid and Boehner to hash out (or decide not to). But there are indications the “get the Keystone pipeline going” language is being written loosely enough that it won’t draw a veto threat.
The top negotiators, Barbara Boxer for the Senate Democrats and John Mica for the House GOP, sent unmistakable signals to lobbyists yesterday that they’ve virtually finalized the main measure, with compromises on Republican-sought efforts to streamline environmental reviews of road and transit projects, limit the mandate for roadside enhancements in big projects (bike lanes and trees, for example) and combine several transportation programs. The conferees had set tonight as their goal for the handshakes and prosecco — to allow plenty of time for the legislative drafting, whip-counting and voting. That deadline won’t be met, but all sides say the deal could come Monday, if the Speaker and majority leader are available to personally settle the last few top-tier disputes.
If there’s a reason why the 10th try for a deal looks to actually succeed, it’s that the political and economic pressure has grown too intense at an opportune time: The Highway Trust Fund, the kitty supplied with gasoline tax revenue from which road and bridge projects are financed, would come close to running out of money in the 130 days before the election if Congress had to resort to another temporary extension of the 2005 law. (Its balance in October will be at best $5 billion, a third of what it was one year earlier.) And that prospect alone would almost certainly prompt state and local leaders to slow down even further the timelines for even their most shovel-ready projects — meaning, of course, fewer jobs being created because of a congressional impasse at just the moment both parties are campaigning as the more worthy stewards of job creation.
STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT: There’s also suddenly a better-than-even shot that a student loan deal will get done next week as well.
This time, it’s Reid and McConnell who seem to have taken the reins of the negotiations, which looked to be on the dark side of the moon only a day ago. Boehner’s team (and, as usual, Pelosi’s) do not appear to pbe laying any active role in this latest round of talks. But the White House insists it does have a hand in the deliberations — an assertion that Republicans say is an exaggeration, at the very best, and would seem to be rebutted by Obama’s own rhetoric yesterday, when he seemed to lay all of the blame for the impasse on the people at the Capitol, whom he lambasted without regard to party. “Congress has had the time to fix this for months,” he said, “but we’ve been stuck watching Congress play chicken with another deadline. This should be a no-brainer. It should have gotten done weeks ago.”
Off-camera, though, the majority and minority leaders are looking to pick an item or two from each party’s initial offers on how to pay the $6 billion cost of extending the 3.4 percent interest rate on federally subsidized Stafford loans for a year beyond next Sunday, when that rate is set to double. Republicans have offered a long menu of options centered on programs the president himself has proposed giving nothing to in his current budget. The favorite Democratic idea is to raise the amount businesses pay to have their pension plans federally insured.
FAKED OUT: The Virginia man accused of plotting to blow up the Capitol in February will plead guilty this afternoon at the federal courthouse in Alexandria, Va. Amine El Khalifi, a Moroccan who had been living illegally in the United States for more than a decade, was arrested in a Capitol Hill garage by undercover agents who he thought were fellow al Qaeda followers — just minutes before he expected to shoot his way into the Capitol and then use a bomb-laden vest to wreak mayhem and make himself a martyr. (His weapons, provided by the agents, were total fakes.) Prosecutors say El Khalifi was not entrapped but instead got into the government’s sights when he approached an undercover FBI operatives and initially proposed they work together to attack a synagogue and kill some Army generals.
MORE OF THE SAME: Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage has made no statistically significant difference in how the electorate views the issue, an AP poll out today finds: 42 percent of Americans oppose the idea, 40 percent support it and 15 percent are neutral. Last August, the numbers were (within the margin of error) the same: 45 percent oppose, 42 percent favor and 10 percent neutral.
Importantly for his re-election effort, though, the poll found his switch in position has fired up his Democratic and liberal base: 41 percent of Democrats now say they strongly approve of his stance (up 15 points from last summer), as do 48 percent of liberals (a 20-point jump). The survey (taken the five days ending Monday) found the right increasingly energized as well, although not as much as the left: 53 percent of Republicans now say they strongly disapprove of Obama’s view on gay rights (up 8 points) as do 52 percent of conservatives (up 9 points).
QUOTES OF NOTE: “The decision to invoke executive privilege is an admission that White House officials were involved in decisions that misled the Congress and have covered up the truth,” was Boehner’s effort yesterday to raise the political stakes in the Eric Holder contempt proceedings. “So what is the Obama administration hiding in Fast and Furious?”
“These very same people who are holding him in contempt are part of a nationwide scheme to suppress the vote,” was Pelosi’s effort to do the same. “To frivolously use that really important vehicle to undermine the person who is assigned to stop the voter suppression in our country. I’m telling you, this is connected. It is no accident. . . . It’s not only to monopolize his time, it’s to undermine his name.”
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Two veteran California Democrats today, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (79) and Rep. Adam Schiff (52). One House GOP freshman tomorrow, Bob Dold of Illinois (43).
— David Hawkings, editor
Become a Facebook fan at facebook.com/DavidHawkingsDC. Or follow me on Twitter @davidhawkings.
More congressional campaign coverage is on Roll Call’s At the Races politics blog.
EDITOR'S PICKS FROM THE CQ ROLL CALL NEWSROOM
GOP Leaders Refute Reid's Claim of Progress on Student Loan Bill (CQ Today)
Harry Reid and a White House spokesman said Thursday that conversations on student loans are finally taking place, although Republicans said they haven't been part of those discussions. » View full article
Mitt Romney Softens Immigration Rhetoric in Speech to Latinos (Roll Call)
Romney's carefully calibrated speech to Latino elected officials included a softer tone than he used during the primaries but only a single, modest concession on the issue of whether young immigrants brought here illegally as children should be deported. » View full article
Stuart Rothenberg: Senate Majority Still Up for Grabs in November (Roll Call)
Before anyone gets carried away with a new round of predictions, it's best to state the obvious: Neither party is in the position to claim victory. » View full article
Sanctioned, Yet Sanctioned (CQ Weekly)
Russian helicopters aren't all they're cracked up to be, as diplomatic leverage or political talking points. » View full article
GSA Touts New Savings Efforts (CQ Weekly)
The General Services Administration was shamed earlier this year, so it's now touting the ways in which it is working hard to save the government money. » View full article
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